Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
